What A Gold Shock Could Look Like

Date: 2019-09-05 13:00:11


NOTE: Please see the article for the corrected table (small error): https://goldsilver.com/blog/what-a-gold-shock-could-look-like-institutional-investors-start-buying/ I once asked my institutional investor friend, who used to work at Goldman Sachs and has been a gold owner for many years, what would make him buy more bullion. Without hesitation he said, “When the price breaks out.”

Well, as is clear to the world, gold has broken out of its long-term trading range.

My friend is not alone in this sentiment of waiting to buy an investment until it’s rising. Institutional advisors, brokers and managers sit on the sidelines until a dormant asset class comes alive and establishes an uptrend—then they jump in.

With the recent uptrend in the gold price, it’s time to look at what kind of cash could come into the gold market from these types of investors. Institutions will want exposure. Not just because financial and market risks are higher, but because gold can net them a profit.

It’s not just me saying this. Look what CPM Group stated in their 2018 Gold Yearbook (emphasis mine):

• CPM secured the best available list of 6,500 hedge fund and commodity fund managers. Of that enormous pool of managers, only 132 said they invested in metals… of the 132, 35 said they looked at macro and fundamental factors. The rest relied on computerized and traditional technical analysis based on price movements, price momentum indicators, moving averages, open interest, trading volume, and other such market data.

Only 2% of hedge funds currently have any gold in their portfolios. Further, the majority look at computerized and technical signals to tell them when to buy—by any reasonable measure gold has given them that technical signal.

So what kind of cash could enter the gold market?

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